2/23/2018

How Do You Plan for Uncertainty?

In a changing global environment, leaders must be able to make decisions about future risks and opportunities despite uncertainty. Kristel Van der Elst ‘02 describes the process of strategic foresight and its value in preparing organizations to be robust whatever the future holds. 
In my view, the future is built out of three pieces. It’s what comes from the past—existing trends and established commitments. It’s what comes from the future—new business models, new technologies, or new value systems. And it’s the decisions we make today.
Whether it’s a country, a business, or an individual looking at family and career, foresight is a means to be adaptable and robust in the face of scenarios that might knock you off a path to success. And it’s a means to identify new models that might be opportunities to deliver new value.

KRISTEL VAN DER ELST  
 

Can the Graduation Approach Help to End Extreme Poverty?

An intensive development intervention focused on helping the destitute “graduate” into sustainable livelihoods has shown remarkable promise. Yale’s Tony Sheldon discusses the methodology’s development, extensive evaluation, and future potential.
One effort to tackle the distinct and complex barriers to economic development faced by the “ultra-poor” comes from the Bangladesh-based NGO BRAC, which in 2002 launched an intensive program aimed at addressing extreme poverty. BRAC’s Challenging the Frontiers of Poverty Reduction—Targeting the Ultra Poor (CFPR-TUP) initiative used a carefully sequenced series of interventions to give destitute household the tools and opportunity to make sustainable change. After the program was carried out in hundreds of thousands of households within Bangladesh, rigorous evaluations showed clear and sustained positive impacts on participants’ ability to “graduate” out of extreme poverty into sustainable livelihoods.
TONY SHELDON   
 

The Peacekeeping Economy

The idea that military strength is virtually synonymous with security is deeply entrenched and widely held. But while the threat or use of military force may sometimes be necessary, it cannot keep us as safe as we would be by building relationships that replace hostility with a sense of mutual purpose and mutual gain. Economic relationships, says Lloyd J. Dumas, can offer a far more effective, and far less costly, means of maintaining security. After defining the right kind of economic relationship—one that is balanced and nonexploitative, emphasizes development, and minimizes environmental damage—Dumas then addresses some practical concerns in establishing and maintaining these relationships. He also considers the practical problems of the transition from military-based security arrangements to "economic peacekeeping," and the effects of demilitarized security on economic development and prosperity.
Lloyd J. Dumas is Professor of Political Economy, Economics and Public Policy at the University of Texas, Dallas. He lives in Carrollton, TX.

yalebooks.yale.edu

Network Power The Social Dynamics of Globalization

David Singh Grewal’s remarkable and ambitious book draws on several centuries of political and social thought to show how globalization is best understood in terms of a power inherent in social relations, which he calls network power. Using this framework, he demonstrates how our standards of social coordination both gain in value the more they are used and undermine the viability of alternative forms of cooperation. A wide range of examples are discussed, from the spread of English and the gold standard to the success of Microsoft and the operation of the World Trade Organization, to illustrate how global standards arise and falter. The idea of network power supplies a coherent set of terms and concepts—applicable to individuals, businesses, and countries alike—through which we can describe the processes of globalization as both free and forced.  The result is a sophisticated and novel account of how globalization, and politics, work.
David Singh Grewal is a member of the Harvard Society of Fellows and an affiliated fellow of the Information Society Project at Yale Law School.
yalebooks.yale.edu

The cadaver industry in Britain and the United States, its processes and profits

This book is a history of the nameless corpses from which cadaver stuff is extracted and the entities involved in removing, processing, and distributing it. Pfeffer goes behind the mortuary door to reveal the technical, imaginative, and sometimes underhanded practices that have facilitated the global industry of transforming human fragments into branded convenience products. The dead have no need of cash, but money changes hands at every link of the supply chain. This book refocuses attention away from individual altruism and onto professional and corporate ethics.
Naomi Pfeffer is author of The Stork and the Syringe: A Political History of Reproductive Medicine and an associate of University College London. She lives in London.

yalebooks.yale.edu

Chinese Self-Driving Car NIO Spotted In Silicon Valley

Chinese self-driving car company NIO showed up in Silicon Valley for its first test drives. NIO is not new to San Francisco, but this is the first public sightings of their Tesla Model X competitor, the ES8, outside of China (article in Chinese). Someone saw the autonomous car on the Montague Expressway in Santa Clara, California.

Baidu Battling AI News And 5G Is Coming To China A Year Early

5G is a complex technology and is the most sought after by governments, telecommunications companies and many tech giants. But why? The simple answer is that it will be 20Xs faster and more robust than 4Gand that means more subscribers, end users and ultimately higher revenues.
China has made bold statements about their desire to be the first country with 5G coast-to-coast (it was supposed to be South Korea or Japan). This time last year, China Mobile, one of the country's largest telecommunications operators, announced that they would be ready for commercial 5G in 2020.

How Leadership And Collaboration Will Help Manufacturing Thrive In The Digital Age

While automation offers the sector an opportunity to lower costs and boost quality, manufacturing leaders need to steer their organizations carefully and responsibly. To allay the risk of humans losing jobs to robots, they need to ensure staff are equipped with the digital skills they, and their companies, need to prosper.
At the same time, the pressure to meet ever more diverse customer needs requires leaders to forge strong partnerships, both within the supply chain and with other complementary businesses - including competitors. Companies can no longer expect to provide ‘end-to-end’ solutions alone.
Putting this vision into practice will be essential for successful digital-age manufacturing.
Leading responsibly and working in partnership are not only key themes in the manufacturing sector – they are also guiding principles for world leaders.
Responsible and responsive leadership was the main theme at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos in 2017, while the need for working in partnership is the main topic at Davos in 2018.

Vertical Cities Are The Future Of Urban Living. But How Do You Make Them Withstand Forces Of Nature?

In the early 1950s, Shenzhen in south-eastern China was a fishing village with only a few thousand inhabitants. Last year, its residents numbered around 11 million. While this may be a particularly extreme example of urban growth, the UN predicts that by 2030, two-thirds of the global population will live in cities. In many urban centers there is already a shortage of space and expanding outwards isn’t always an option.
As a result, like never before, cities are going vertical.
The concept of the ‘vertical city’ received wide attention with the construction of the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. The tallest building in the world, it was one of the first to be conceived as a mixed-use skyscraper with hotel accommodation, residential apartments and offices.
Not surprisingly, China has taken a page out of Dubai’s book as part of its rapid urban growth which saw almost 500 million people move from rural areas into cities in the last 35 years. Five of the ten tallest buildings in the world can be found in ‘megalopolises’ such as Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hong Kong.
Shenzhen’s Ping An Finance Centre is a case in point. Measuring 600 meters, it is the fourth tallest building in the world and the second tallest in China. Located in the CBD financial district of Shenzhen, it encompasses 118 floors and an area of 600,000 square meters. In addition to office space and a five-star boutique hotel, it also sports a 360-degree sightseeing floor.

Singapore's Restaurants Take A Stand Against Shark Fin Consumption

In 2017, Singapore was identified as the world's second-largest trader of shark fins after Hong Kong. Between 2012 and 2013, Singapore exported $40 million worth of shark fins, closely following Hong Kong’s $45 million, and imported $51.4 million worth of fins, compared to Hong Kong’s $170 million.

Billionaire Jeweler Accused Of India's Biggest Ever Banking Scam -- Who Is Nirav Modi?

Over the last week, billionaire diamond jeweler Nirav Modi has dominated the news in India, accused of orchestrating the biggest banking scam the country has ever witnessed. Once the preferred jeweler of celebrities including Kate Winslet and Naomi Watts, he is now the target of a global manhunt issued by India’s Central Bureau of Investigation after one of the country’s largest banks, the state-owned Punjab National Bank (PNB), alleged that Modi, his uncle Mehul Choksi, and other family members and their related companies perpetrated fraudulent transactions worth almost $2 billion.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/leezamangaldas/2018/02/22/

"Mahogany The Costs of Luxury in Early America" by Jennifer L. Anderson

In the mid-eighteenth century, colonial Americans became enamored with the rich colors and silky surface of mahogany. This exotic wood, imported from the West Indies and Central America, quickly displaced local furniture woods as the height of fashion. Over the next century, consumer demand for mahogany set in motion elaborate schemes to secure the trees and transform their rough-hewn logs into exquisite objects. But beneath the polished gleam of this furniture lies a darker, hidden story of human and environmental exploitation.
Mahogany traces the path of this wood through many hands, from source to sale: from the enslaved African woodcutters, including skilled “huntsmen” who located the elusive trees amidst dense rainforest, to the ship captains, merchants, and timber dealers who scrambled after the best logs, to the skilled cabinetmakers who crafted the wood, and with it the tastes and aspirations of their diverse clientele. As the trees became scarce, however, the search for new sources led to expanded slave labor, vicious competition, and intense international conflicts over this diminishing natural resource. When nineteenth-century American furniture makers turned to other materials, surviving mahogany objects were revalued as antiques evocative of the nation’s past.
Jennifer L. Anderson offers a dynamic portrait of the many players, locales, and motivations that drove the voracious quest for mahogany to adorn American parlors and dining rooms. This complex story reveals the cultural, economic, and environmental costs of America’s growing self-confidence and prosperity, and how desire shaped not just people’s lives but the natural world.

"How Economics Shapes Science" by Paula Stephan

The beauty of science may be pure and eternal, but the practice of science costs money. And scientists, being human, respond to incentives and costs, in money and glory. Choosing a research topic, deciding what papers to write and where to publish them, sticking with a familiar area or going into something new—the payoff may be tenure or a job at a highly ranked university or a prestigious award or a bump in salary. The risk may be not getting any of that.
At a time when science is seen as an engine of economic growth, Paula Stephan brings a keen understanding of the ongoing cost-benefit calculations made by individuals and institutions as they compete for resources and reputation. She shows how universities offload risks by increasing the percentage of non–tenure-track faculty, requiring tenured faculty to pay salaries from outside grants, and staffing labs with foreign workers on temporary visas. With funding tight, investigators pursue safe projects rather than less fundable ones with uncertain but potentially path-breaking outcomes. Career prospects in science are increasingly dismal for the young because of ever-lengthening apprenticeships, scarcity of permanent academic positions, and the difficulty of getting funded.
Vivid, thorough, and bold, How Economics Shapes Science highlights the growing gap between the haves and have-nots—especially the vast imbalance between the biomedical sciences and physics/engineering—and offers a persuasive vision of a more productive, more creative research system that would lead and benefit the world.

The Engine of Enterprise Credit in America

American households, businesses, and governments have always used intensive amounts of credit. The Engine of Enterprise traces the story of credit from colonial times to the present, highlighting its productive role in building national prosperity. Rowena Olegario probes enduring questions that have divided Americans: Who should have access to credit? How should creditors assess borrowers’ creditworthiness? How can people accommodate to, rather than just eliminate, the risks of a credit-dependent economy?
In the 1790s Alexander Hamilton saw credit as “the invigorating principle” that would spur the growth of America’s young economy. His great rival, Thomas Jefferson, deemed it a grave risk, inviting burdens of debt that would amount to national self-enslavement. Even today, credit lies at the heart of longstanding debates about opportunity, democracy, individual responsibility, and government’s reach.
Olegario goes beyond these timeless debates to explain how the institutions and legal frameworks of borrowing and lending evolved and how attitudes about credit both reflected and drove those changes. Properly managed, credit promised to be a powerful tool. Mismanaged, it augured disaster. The Engine of Enterprise demonstrates how this tension led to the creation of bankruptcy laws, credit-reporting agencies, and insurance regimes to harness the power of credit while minimizing its destabilizing effects.

The Assumptions Economists Make by Jonathan Schlefer

Economists make confident assertions in op-ed columns and on cable news—so why are their explanations often at odds with equally confident assertions from other economists? And why are all economic predictions so rarely borne out? Harnessing his frustration with these contradictions, Jonathan Schlefer set out to investigate how economists arrive at their opinions.
While economists cloak their views in the aura of science, what they actually do is make assumptions about the world, use those assumptions to build imaginary economies (known as models), and from those models generate conclusions. Their models can be useful or dangerous, and it is surprisingly difficult to tell which is which. Schlefer arms us with an understanding of rival assumptions and models reaching back to Adam Smith and forward to cutting-edge theorists today. Although abstract, mathematical thinking characterizes economists’ work, Schlefer reminds us that economists are unavoidably human. They fall prey to fads and enthusiasms and subscribe to ideologies that shape their assumptions, sometimes in problematic ways.

A Century of Wealth in America by Edward N. Wolff

Understanding wealth in the United States—who has it, how they acquired it, and how they preserve it—is crucial to addressing the economic and political challenges facing the nation. But until now we have had little reliable information. Edward Wolff, one of the world’s great experts on the economics of wealth, offers an authoritative account of patterns in the accumulation and distribution of wealth since 1900.
A Century of Wealth in America demonstrates that the most remarkable change has been the growth of per capita household wealth, which climbed almost eightfold prior to the 2007 recession. But overlaid on this base rate are worrying trends. The share of personal wealth claimed by the richest one percent almost doubled between the mid-1970s and 2013, concurrent with a steep run-up of debt in the middle class. As the wealth of the average family dropped precipitously—by 44 percent—between 2007 and 2013, with black families hit hardest, the debt-income ratio more than doubled. The Great Recession also caused a sharp spike in asset poverty, as more and more families barely survived from one paycheck to the next. In short, the United States has changed from being one of the most economically equal of the advanced industrialized countries to being one of the most unequal.
At a time of deep uncertainty about the future, A Century of Wealth in America provides a sober bedrock of facts and astute analysis. It will become one of the few indispensable resources for contemporary public debate.

Blockchain and the Law

Since Bitcoin appeared in 2009, the digital currency has been hailed as an Internet marvel and decried as the preferred transaction vehicle for all manner of criminals. It has left nearly everyone without a computer science degree confused: Just how do you “mine” money from ones and zeros?
The answer lies in a technology called blockchain, which can be used for much more than Bitcoin. A general-purpose tool for creating secure, decentralized, peer-to-peer applications, blockchain technology has been compared to the Internet itself in both form and impact. Some have said this tool may change society as we know it. Blockchains are being used to create autonomous computer programs known as “smart contracts,” to expedite payments, to create financial instruments, to organize the exchange of data and information, and to facilitate interactions between humans and machines. The technology could affect governance itself, by supporting new organizational structures that promote more democratic and participatory decision making.
Primavera De Filippi and Aaron Wright acknowledge this potential and urge the law to catch up. That is because disintermediation—a blockchain’s greatest asset—subverts critical regulation. By cutting out middlemen, such as large online operators and multinational corporations, blockchains run the risk of undermining the capacity of governmental authorities to supervise activities in banking, commerce, law, and other vital areas. De Filippi and Wright welcome the new possibilities inherent in blockchains. But as Blockchain and the Law makes clear, the technology cannot be harnessed productively without new rules and new approaches to legal thinking.

Top Incomes in France in the Twentieth Century Inequality and Redistribution, 1901–1998

A landmark in contemporary social science, this pioneering work by Thomas Piketty explains the facts and dynamics of income inequality in France in the twentieth century. On its publication in French in 2001, it helped launch the international program led by Piketty and others to explore the grand patterns and causes of global inequality—research that has since transformed public debate. Appearing here in English for the first time, this stunning achievement will take its place alongside Capital in the Twenty-First Century as a modern classic of economic analysis.
Top Incomes in France in the Twentieth Century is essential in part because of Piketty’s unprecedented efforts to uncover, untangle, and present in clear form data about patterns in tax and inheritance in France dating back to 1900. But it is also an exceptional work of analysis, tracking and explaining with Piketty’s characteristically lucid prose the effects of political conflict, war, and social change on the economic pressures and public policies that determined the lives of millions. A work of unusual intellectual power and ambition, Top Incomes in France in the Twentieth Century is a vital resource for anyone concerned with the economic, political, and social history of France, and it is central to ongoing debates about social justice, inequality, taxation, and the evolution of capitalism around the world.

The World Inequality Report 2018

The World Inequality Report: 2018 is the most authoritative and up-to-date account of global trends in inequality. Researched, compiled, and written by a team of the world’s leading economists of inequality, it presents—with unrivaled clarity and depth—information and analysis that will be vital to policy makers and scholars everywhere.
Inequality has taken center stage in public debate as the wealthiest people in most parts of the world have seen their share of the economy soar relative to that of others, many of whom, especially in the West, have experienced stagnation. The resulting political and social pressures have posed harsh new challenges for governments and created a pressing demand for reliable data. The World Inequality Lab at the Paris School of Economics and the University of California, Berkeley, has answered this call by coordinating research into the latest trends in the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth on every continent. This inaugural report analyzes the Lab’s findings, which include data from major countries where information has traditionally been difficult to acquire, such as China, India, and Brazil. Among nations, inequality has been decreasing as traditionally poor countries’ economies have caught up with the West. The report shows, however, that inequality has been steadily deepening within almost every nation, though national trajectories vary, suggesting the importance of institutional and policy frameworks in shaping inequality.
The World Inequality Report: 2018 will be a key document for anyone concerned about one of the most imperative and contentious subjects in contemporary politics and economics.

Power, Pleasure, and Profit

We pursue power, pleasure, and profit. We want as much as we can get, and we deploy instrumental reasoning—cost-benefit analysis—to get it. We judge ourselves and others by how well we succeed. It is a way of life and thought that seems natural, inevitable, and inescapable. As David Wootton shows, it is anything but. In Power, Pleasure, and Profit, he traces an intellectual and cultural revolution that replaced the older normative systems of Aristotelian ethics and Christian morality with the iron cage of instrumental reasoning that now gives shape and purpose to our lives.
Wootton guides us through four centuries of Western thought—from Machiavelli to Madison—to show how new ideas about politics, ethics, and economics stepped into a gap opened up by religious conflict and the Scientific Revolution. As ideas about godliness and Aristotelian virtue faded, theories about the rational pursuit of power, pleasure, and profit moved to the fore in the work of writers both obscure and as famous as Hobbes, Locke, and Adam Smith. The new instrumental reasoning was a double-edged weapon. It cut through old codes of status and rank, enabling the emergence of movements for liberty and equality. But it also helped to create a world in which virtue, honor, shame, and guilt count for almost nothing, and what matters is success.

Why the heck is there still an automotive chip shortage?

 A side from the raw, human toll,   COVID-19   has dramatically changed how we live, from travel and education to the way people work. This ...